With qualification for the World Cup 2026 playoffs within touching distance, Italy welcome Israel to the Stadio Friuli in Udine on Tuesday night. The Azzurri need only a single point to mathematically seal their spot, but head coach Gennaro Gattuso will accept nothing less than victory as he continues to rebuild his nation’s reputation on the world stage.
After a chaotic start to their qualifying campaign, Italy have finally rediscovered rhythm and confidence under Gattuso’s fiery leadership. Following the heavy defeat in Oslo, they bounced back with four straight wins, netting 13 goals in their last three games. The latest came in Tallinn, where despite a missed penalty from Mateo Retegui and a costly mistake by Gianluigi Donnarumma, the Azzurri claimed a 3-1 victory over Estonia.
Perhaps their most thrilling encounter came against Israel last month in Budapest, where Italy triumphed 5–4 in one of the wildest games of the qualifying cycle. Sandro Tonali’s stoppage-time winner proved decisive after Italy twice squandered commanding leads, and the post-match confrontation between Gattuso, his captain, and Israel’s players only added fuel to what has become a heated rivalry.
Gattuso’s side are showing signs of the grit and aggression that once defined Italy’s footballing identity. Young talents like Francesco Pio Esposito and Nicolo Barella are thriving, while senior figures such as Giovanni Di Lorenzo, Leonardo Spinazzola, and Federico Dimarco are providing stability in a rejuvenated lineup. Yet, the scars of their back-to-back World Cup failures mean they cannot afford to take anything for granted, a lapse in concentration could prove costly.
For Israel, the trip to Udine represents a final shot at salvaging their qualifying campaign. Ran Ben Shimon’s men sit three points behind Italy, having played an extra game, and their defensive fragility has repeatedly undermined any attacking promise. A humiliating 5–2 loss to Norway on Saturday, featuring another Erling Haaland masterclass, leaves them on the brink of elimination.
Israel’s backline, which leaked five goals in Oslo and four in the reverse fixture against Italy, remains a glaring weakness. The team has shown flashes of creativity through Oscar Gloukh and Eran Zahavi, but without tightening up defensively, they risk another long and painful night against an Italian side eager to stamp its authority.
Italy have been ruthless at home under Gattuso, and with qualification just one point away, the Azzurri are unlikely to show mercy. Expect a lively contest early on, but as the match wears on, Italy’s superior quality and tactical discipline should overwhelm an exhausted Israeli defence. The Hard Tackle takes a look at how both sides could line up and what tactics they might employ on the day.
Italy manager Gennaro Gattuso faces several enforced changes ahead of the decisive clash in Udine. The Azzurri will be without Moise Kean, who opened the scoring in the win over Estonia but suffered an ankle injury that rules him out of contention for Tuesday’s encounter. His absence is a blow, given the Fiorentina striker’s impressive form and his brace in last month’s reverse fixture against Israel.
In addition to Kean’s injury, Alessandro Bastoni will also be unavailable after picking up a booking that triggered a one-match suspension. The Inter Milan defender’s absence leaves a hole in Italy’s backline, which is expected to be filled by Gianluca Mancini, a player known for his aggression and aerial dominance.
Gattuso is already operating without several key attacking options. Gianluca Scamacca remains sidelined, while both Matteo Politano and Mattia Zaccagni were forced to withdraw from the initial squad due to muscle issues. Their unavailability has limited Italy’s width and forced tactical adjustments. In the previous fixture, Giacomo Raspadori and Riccardo Orsolini filled in effectively, but with Gattuso likely to favour more balance against Israel, Leonardo Spinazzola and Andrea Cambiaso could start on the flanks.
In the heart of midfield, Nicolo Barella and Sandro Tonali will continue to dictate the tempo, with both players instrumental to Italy’s recent attacking resurgence. Barella’s energy and vertical runs complement Tonali’s ability to control possession and deliver incisive passes. Behind them, Giovanni Di Lorenzo and Federico Dimarco will operate as full-backs, providing overlapping support while maintaining defensive stability.
At the front, Mateo Retegui is expected to lead the line once again. The Argentine-born forward has impressed with his work rate and finishing instinct throughout qualifying. He will likely be supported by Giacomo Raspadori, who may play slightly deeper, operating between the lines to link midfield and attack. The balanced 4-4-2 is designed to maintain defensive control while still posing a potent threat in transition and set-piece situations.
Probable Lineup (4-4-2): Donnarumma; Di Lorenzo, Mancini, Calafiori, Dimarco; Cambiaso, Barella, Tonali, Spinazzola; Raspadori, Retegui
Israel manager Ran Ben Shimon will be without one of his most influential midfielders, Dor Peretz, who is ruled out through suspension after receiving his second yellow card of the campaign. The Maccabi Tel Aviv captain played a starring role in the reverse fixture last month, scoring twice in the nine-goal thriller against Italy, and his absence will be deeply felt both in leadership and midfield balance.
The visitors are expected to ring the changes after their defensive collapse in the 5–1 defeat to Norway. Dan Biton, who struggled to make an impact in Oslo, is likely to drop to the bench as Ben Shimon looks for greater attacking presence and pressing intensity in the final third.
Either Tai Baribo or Dor Turgeman could be preferred to lead the line, with the latter offering more pace and movement between the Italian centre-backs. The formation they are expected to line up in is a 4-2-3-1.
In the wide areas, Manor Solomon is expected to start. The Tottenham Hotspur winger, currently on loan at Villarreal, provides Israel’s most consistent attacking threat from the flanks, combining dribbling flair with the ability to cut inside and shoot. He will be joined by Oscar Gloukh, the creative Ajax playmaker who will operate as an advanced midfielder or inverted winger, linking midfield and attack with his close control and quick passing.
In midfield, Eli Dasa will captain the side and also play an important role from right-back, while Eliel Peretz and Mohammad Abu Fani will form the central pairing tasked with screening the defence and distributing the ball efficiently under Italy’s pressing. Roy Revivo and Idan Nachmias are expected to marshal the defence alongside Matan Baltaxa, though the trio will need to show far more composure than they did in Norway.
In goal, Daniel Peretz retains his place, despite conceding five goals at the weekend. He remains the team’s undisputed No. 1 and will be vital if Israel are to keep the scoreline respectable against Italy’s high-tempo attack.
Probable Lineup (4-2-3-1): D. Peretz; Dasa, Baltaxa, Nachmias, Revivo; Abu Fani, E. Peretz; Khalaily, Gloukh, Solomon; Baribo
Italy have won seven of their eight competitive meetings with Israel across all competitions, drawing the other one. The Azzurri have scored 21 goals in those encounters while conceding just five, showcasing their long-standing superiority over the Middle Eastern side.
Under Gennaro Gattuso, Italy have rediscovered their attacking edge, they have scored 13 goals in their last three World Cup qualifiers, averaging more than four goals per game during that stretch. Their most prolific performance came in the reverse fixture, a 5–4 victory in Israel that featured five different scorers.
Israel have conceded 14 goals in their last four qualifying matches, the worst defensive record in Group I. Their backline has been breached five times or more in two of those games, including the recent 5–1 loss to Norway and the 5–4 defeat to Italy last month.
Italy remain unbeaten in their last nine home World Cup qualifiers (W7 D2), a streak dating back to 2016. During that run, they have kept five clean sheets and averaged 2.6 goals per game, making the Stadio Friuli a difficult venue for visiting teams.
Sandro Tonali has been directly involved in three goals in his last two qualifying appearances (two goals and one assist), including the decisive stoppage-time winner in the 5-4 thriller against Israel. His set-piece precision and long-range passing have been crucial to Italy’s recent surge in form.
Italy’s frontline has been revitalized under Gennaro Gattuso, and Mateo Retegui stands at the heart of that resurgence. The Argentine-born striker, who has quickly established himself as one of the Azzurri’s most consistent goal threats, combines clinical finishing with relentless work rate, attributes that make him indispensable to this new-look Italian side.
Since making his international debut, Retegui has shown a remarkable knack for scoring in crucial moments. His intelligent movement allows him to exploit spaces behind defenders, while his physicality ensures he can hold up play and link effectively with attacking midfielders like Giacomo Raspadori and Nicolo Barella.
Having already notched multiple goals in Italy’s World Cup qualifying campaign, Retegui will be eager to add to his tally against an Israel defence that has looked vulnerable throughout the group stage. His ability to finish with both feet and his aerial prowess in set-piece situations could prove decisive once again.
With Moise Kean sidelined through injury, all eyes will be on Retegui to lead the line and deliver the cutting edge Italy need to secure their playoff place, and perhaps remind Europe that the Azzurri finally have a true No. 9 to rely on.
Italy have grown stronger with every game under Gennaro Gattuso, showing attacking flair and renewed confidence in front of goal. Even without Moise Kean and a few key wide players, the Azzurri have enough depth and firepower to break down Israel’s shaky defence, especially with Mateo Retegui and Sandro Tonali in top form.
Israel, meanwhile, have struggled to find consistency at both ends of the pitch. Their defence has conceded heavily in recent qualifiers, and facing Italy away from home will only magnify those issues. Manor Solomon and Oscar Gloukh could create moments of danger on the counter, but it’s unlikely to be enough against Italy’s superior quality and structure.
Expect the hosts to dominate possession, control midfield through Nicolo Barella and Tonali, and find goals through Retegui and Giacomo Raspadori. Israel may grab a consolation strike, but Italy’s class and home advantage should ensure a comfortable night in Udinese.
