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Qarabag FK vs Chelsea: Preview and Prediction

Chelsea will be keen to continue a solid start to the 2025/26 UEFA Champions League campaign when they face Qarabag FK at the Tofiq Bahramov Stadium on Wednesday.

The curtains will fall on Matchday 4 of the 2025/26 UEFA Champions League season on Wednesday. The action on the day will start with two simultaneous matches, including Qarabag FK vs Chelsea at the Tofiq Bahramov Stadium.

Qarabag FK could not have asked for a better start to the 2025/26 UEFA Champions League campaign, as they beat SL Benfica and FC Copenhagen in the first two matchdays. However, a 3-1 defeat to Athletic Club on Matchday 3 has dropped the Azerbaijani outfit to 13th on the table. Meanwhile, Gurban Gurbanov’s men are in contention to win the Azerbaijan Premier League, as they are only one point behind Turan Tovuz, having played a game less.

On the other hand, Chelsea began the 2025/26 UEFA Champions League with a 3-1 defeat to Bayern Munich before bouncing back with wins over SL Benfica and Ajax to rise to 11th in the standings. However, the Blues have not been convincing enough in domestic football, although they are on a run of six wins in seven matches across all competitions, with the 1-0 victory over Tottenham Hotspur taking them to seventh on the Premier League table.

Qarabag and Chelsea have faced off twice previously, with the West London outfit scoring ten times without response in those clashes. The Hard Tackle looks closer at the encounter ahead of the latest meeting between the two sides.

Team News & Tactics

Qarabag FK

Gurban Gurbanov has no new injury concern hampering his preparations ahead of his side’s latest fixture. The Qarabag FK manager will be bereft of the services of only two first-team players vs Chelsea on Wednesday.

Ramil Sheydayev is not in Qarabag’s UEFA Champions League squad, and he will not feature for the Azerbaijani club until the next round, if they reach that stage. Jonathan Montiel will also miss out due to eligibility issues.

Mateusz Kochalski will take his spot between the sticks, with Qarabag FK lining up in a 4-2-3-1 formation in front of him vs Chelsea on Wednesday. The backline will feature Matheus Silva, Bahlul Mustafazada, Kevin Medina, and Elvin Cafarquliyev.

As for the midfield unit, Pedro Bicalho will line up alongside Kady Borges in the double pivot, with Leandro Andrade reprising the no. 10 role. Finally, Nariman Akhundzade will lead the line for Qarabag FK against Chelsea, with Camilo Duran and captain Abdellah Zoubir being the two wide attackers.

Probable Lineup (4-2-3-1): Kochalski; Silva, Mustafazada, Medina, Cafarquliyev; Bicalho, Borges; Duran, Andrade, Zoubir; Akhundzade

Chelsea

Unlike his counterpart in the Qarabag FK dugout, Enzo Maresca has received positive updates on the team news front ahead of his side’s latest fixture. The Chelsea manager will be without five first-team players on Wednesday.

Levi Colwill (knee), Benoit Badiashile (muscular), Dario Essugo (hamstring), and Cole Palmer (groin) remain in the treatment room. Additionally, Mykhailo Mudryk is serving a suspension after failing a doping test several months ago. However, Joao Pedro has finished his ban in the UEFA Champions League, while Liam Delap is only unavailable for domestic games.

Robert Sanchez is an automatic pick between the sticks, with Chelsea lining up in a 4-2-3-1 formation in front of him vs Qarabag FK on Wednesday. The backline will feature Malo Gusto, Josh Acheampong, Tosin Adarabioyo, and Marc Cucurella.

As for the midfield unit, Moises Caicedo and Enzo Fernandez will pair up in the double pivot, with the returning Joao Pedro reprising the no. 10 role. Finally, Marc Guiu will spearhead the Chelsea attack against Qarabag, with Estevao Willian and Jamie Gittens being the two wide attackers.

Probable Lineup (4-2-3-1): Sanchez; Gusto, Acheampong, Adarabioyo, Cucurella; Caicedo, Enzo Fernandez; Estevao, Joao Pedro, Gittens; Guiu

Key Stats

  • The previous two meetings between Qarabag and Chelsea were also in the group stage of the UEFA Champions League, with the Premier League bigwigs winning 6-0 at home and 4-0 away in the 2017/18 edition. The Blues’ 10 goals in the previous two clashes with the Azerbaijani outfit are their joint-most in their first two matches against an opponent in the competition (also 10 vs Nordsjaelland).
  • Qarabag have lost all seven games against English clubs in Europe, conceding 21 goals and only scoring once. The Azerbaijani club’s only strike came via a penalty against Tottenham Hotspur in September 2015, and they have failed to score in six outings against English opposition since then.
  • Including the FIFA Club World Cup, Chelsea have won 20 of their 23 games in international competition under Enzo Maresca (excluding qualifiers), scoring at least once in all 23 ties and averaging 2.9 goals per outing (66 scored in total). However, the Blues lost their last three away games in the UEFA Champions League. Only once did the West London outfit previously lose four successive matches on the road in the competition (between December 2004 and May 2005).
  • Qarabag have taken six of nine points available in the UEFA Champions League this season (W2 L1) after only winning two of 18 available in their previous appearance in this tournament (P6 D2 L4 in 2017-18). The Azerbaijani giants have also already tripled their goal haul from the 2017/18 edition (2), netting six goals in three games this term.
  • Moises Caicedo has completed 92.9 per cent of his passes under high-intensity pressure in the UEFA Champions League this season (65/70), the third-best completion rate by a central midfielder across the opening three matchdays (minimum 50 attempted), behind Arthur Vermeeren (93.3%) and Aleix Garcia (93%).

Player to Watch

Estevao Willian

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While Joao Pedro, Leandro Andrade, and Marc Guiu were viable candidates for this section, we have picked Estevao Willian as the Player to Watch for Wednesday’s UEFA Champions League clash between Qarabag FK and Chelsea at the Tofiq Bahramov Stadium.

The teenage sensation scored his first UEFA Champions League goal on Matchday 3 against Ajax. Should he find the net in this game, the Brazilian international will become the first South American player to score in consecutive appearances while aged 18 or younger. With Estevao rising in prominence with each performance, expect him to be the go-to player for Enzo Maresca on Wednesday.

Prediction

Qarabag FK 0-1 Chelsea

Wednesday’s UEFA Champions League clash at the Tofiq Bahramov Stadium may not have many goals, even though Qarabag FK and Chelsea have averaged two or more goals thus far in this season’s tournament. Additionally, both teams have shown defensive vulnerability. However, neither team has been consistent on either end in the 2025/26 season.

So, a midfield battle may be on the cards, and the two sides will play a closely-contested affair before the gulf in quality becomes clear. That is when Chelsea will take the game by the scruff of its neck, and a narrow victory is on the cards for the away side. The Hard Tackle predicts a 1-0 win for Enzo Maresca and his charges.

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