Burnley vs Brentford: Preview and Prediction

Burnley and Brentford will be eager to return to winning ways when they lock horns at Turf Moor on Saturday.

Gameweek 28 of the 2025/26 Premier League season continues on Saturday. The latest round of fixtures begins on Friday, and the action on Saturday will kick-start with the match between Bournemouth and Sunderland before continuing with three simultaneous games, including Burnley vs Brentford at Turf Moor.

Recent weeks have seen Burnley embark on a mini resurgent run, with the Clarets losing only two of their last five Premier League games. Scott Parker’s men showed incredible resolve to come from two goals down to beat Crystal Palace 3-2 in Gameweek 26 before scoring a late goal to hold Chelsea to a 1-1 draw in their most recent clash. However, Parker will hope the renaissance is not too little too late for his charges.

On the other hand, Brentford fans could not have hoped for a much better campaign after losing Thomas Frank, Bryan Mbeumo, and Yoane Wissa last summer. The Bees are seventh in the Premier League standings, and they have a slight chance of qualifying for the UEFA Champions League. The remarkable run in the 2025/26 campaign has helped Keith Andrews secure a new deal, with the West London club tying him to a new six-year contract.

The reverse fixture saw a late flurry of goals, with Brentford clinching a 3-1 win over Burnley due to Igor Thiago’s match-winning brace. The Hard Tackle looks closer at the encounter ahead of the latest meeting between the two sides.

Team News & Tactics

Burnley

Probable Lineup (3-4-2-1): Dubravka; Walker, Worrall, Esteve; Laurent, Ugochukwu, Hannibal, Humphreys; Edwards, Anthony; Flemming

Brentford

Probable Lineup (4-2-3-1): Kelleher; Ajer, van den Berg, Collins, Henry; Henderson, Janelt; Ouattara, Jensen, Schade; Thiago

Key Stats

• Burnley have lost just one of their last 12 home league games vs Brentford (W7 D4), winning the three most recent meetings (including both Premier League ties). The Bees have won three of their last four league games against Burnley (L1), and they are looking to complete the league double over the Clarets for just the second time after 1934/35.
• Brentford have won ten of their 12 most recent Premier League games against promoted sides. However, the two exceptions have come in their last four matches (1-2 vs Sunderland in August, 1-1 vs Leeds United in December).
• After a win over Crystal Palace and a draw at Chelsea, Burnley have earned four points from their last two Premier League games, just one fewer than they had in their previous 16 (D5 L11). The Clarets have won only four of their last 34 Premier League home games (D8 L22). Three of those four victories have come against fellow promoted sides (Sheffield United in 2023/24, Leeds United and Sunderland this term), with the only one that was not coming against Brentford in March 2024.
• Brentford have won four of their last five Premier League away games (L1), more than they had in their previous 13 (W3 D2 L8). They are looking to win three consecutive matches on the road for only the second time in the competition, after a run of five between January and March last season.
• Burnley have had fewer shots (246), fewer shots on target (80), and have a lower xG (22.7) than any other side in the Premier League this season. The Clarets have also faced the most shots (446), shots on target (154) and have the highest xG against (52.8) in the competition this term.
• Burnley (14.7%) and Brentford (14.5%) are the two teams with the highest long pass percentage in the Premier League this season. Burnley made 79 long passes in this season’s reverse fixture between these two sides; the most by any team in a game in 2025-26 (Brentford with 42).

Player to Watch

Kevin Schade

While Zian Flemming, Jaidon Anthony, and FPL captaincy candidate Igor Thiago were viable candidates for this section, we have picked Kevin Schade as the Player to Watch for Saturday’s Premier League clash between Burnley and Brentford at Turf Moor.

Only Thiago (17) has scored more Premier League goals for Brentford this season than Schade (6). However, all six of his strikes have come at home, making the German winger the highest scorer not to net away in the competition this term. So, he will be eager to break that duck and guide his team back to winning ways this weekend.

Prediction

Burnley 1-2 Brentford

A few weeks ago, this match would have looked like a straightforward win for Brentford over Burnley. However, Scott Parker’s men have made themselves difficult to beat in their recent outings, and they will take the game to the away side.

Zian Flemming will rise to the occasion again, and that will leave Brentford in a spot of bother. However, the visitors will come from a goal down to clinch a hard-fought victory, with Igor Thiago and Kevin Schade delivering the goods. The Hard Tackle predicts a 2-1 win for Keith Andrews and his charges.