Everything remains delicately poised ahead of Thursday’s decisive second leg at Stadio Olimpico, where Roma and Bologna will battle it out for a place in the Europa League quarter-finals. After a tightly contested 1-1 draw in the first leg, this all-Italian tie is set up perfectly, with both sides knowing that one strong performance could be enough to progress.
The opening encounter in Bologna reflected the competitive nature of this matchup. Federico Bernardeschi’s moment of brilliance gave the hosts the lead, but Roma responded through Lorenzo Pellegrini to restore parity. Both teams created opportunities and even struck the woodwork, underlining how evenly matched they are heading into the return leg.
Roma’s European campaign has largely been steady up to this point. By finishing eighth in the league phase, they avoided the complications of a playoff round and advanced directly to the knockout stages.
Their pedigree in European competitions is also noteworthy, having reached the Europa League final as recently as 2023 and lifted the Conference League title in 2022. That experience could prove invaluable in a tie where composure and game management will be crucial.
Adding to that is the presence of Gian Piero Gasperini on the touchline, a manager with recent UEFA Europa League success to his name. His familiarity with the demands of knockout football gives Roma a tactical edge, particularly in navigating high-pressure moments across two legs.
However, Roma’s domestic form has dipped at an inopportune time. A sequence of disappointing results in Serie A has seen them lose ground in the race for Champions League qualification. They squandered a two-goal lead against Juventus before suffering consecutive defeats, including a setback against Genoa and a narrow loss away to Como.
In that most recent outing, Donyell Malen’s early goal was not enough, as a red card to Wesley left them vulnerable and ultimately led to a 2-1 defeat. That inconsistency could raise concerns heading into such a crucial European fixture.
Bologna, meanwhile, arrive in the capital with a mix of confidence and caution. Their victory over Sassuolo last weekend, secured by an early strike from Thijs Dallinga, offered a timely boost after a period of uneven form. While their domestic campaign has been inconsistent, particularly since November, they have shown flashes of quality, including a recent run of five consecutive wins across competitions.
Under Vincenzo Italiano, Bologna have proven to be a resilient and difficult side to break down. Their European journey this season has been particularly impressive, as they remain unbeaten in their last ten matches in continental competition, a club record that highlights their growing maturity on the European stage.
Despite their struggles in Serie A, Bologna’s recent head-to-head record against Roma will give them confidence. They have won two of their last three visits to Stadio Olimpico and have only lost once in their previous seven meetings with the Giallorossi across all competitions. That psychological edge could play a role in what is expected to be another closely fought encounter.
Tactically, this game is likely to hinge on fine margins. Roma may look to assert control at home, relying on their experience and attacking quality, while Bologna will aim to remain compact and disciplined, waiting for opportunities to strike on the counter or from set-piece situations. The Hard Tackle takes a look at how the clubs could line up on the night and what tactics they might employ.
Roma head into the second leg with a mixed update on availability, receiving key defensive reinforcements while continuing to deal with significant absences in attack. Gianluca Mancini returns after serving a suspension that ruled him out of the first leg, providing much-needed leadership and stability at the back.
Evan Ndicka is also back in contention after missing the weekend league defeat, strengthening Roma’s defensive options further. Importantly, Wesley’s suspension applies only to domestic competition, meaning he remains available for this European fixture.
However, Gian Piero Gasperini still faces notable injury concerns, particularly in the final third. Paulo Dybala is sidelined with a knee injury, while Artem Dovbyk continues to recover from a thigh issue. Evan Ferguson is also unavailable due to an ankle problem, leaving Roma short of attacking depth.
Matias Soule is struggling with a muscular injury and remains a doubt, while Zeki Celik picked up a minor calf issue against Como and may not be at full fitness for this clash. With limited attacking options, Donyell Malen is expected to lead the line once again. The Dutch forward has made an immediate impact since arriving and has quickly become Roma’s leading scorer in the league, underlining his importance in a squad currently lacking alternatives up front.
Roma are expected to set up in a 3-4-2-1 formation for this decisive encounter. Mile Svilar is likely to start in goal. The back three should consist of Gianluca Mancini on the right side of defence, Evan Ndicka on the left, and Mario Hermoso operating centrally. In midfield, Zeki Celik is expected to feature as the right wing-back if fit, while Wesley occupies the left flank, providing width and energy.
The central midfield pairing is likely to include Bryan Cristante and Manu Kone, offering a blend of defensive solidity and ball progression. In advanced roles, Niccolo Pisilli and Lorenzo Pellegrini are expected to operate just behind the striker, linking play and creating chances. Leading the attack will be Donyell Malen, who will carry the responsibility of converting opportunities as Roma aim to secure progression.
Probable Lineup (3-4-2-1): Svilar; Mancini, Ndicka, Hermoso; Celik, Cristante, Kone, Wesley; Pisilli, Pellegrini; Malen
Bologna head into the second leg with a mix of returning players and fresh concerns in key areas. Club captain Lewis Ferguson is available again after serving a domestic suspension over the weekend, providing a timely boost in midfield where his leadership and work rate are crucial.
However, the visitors will be without first-choice left-back Juan Miranda, who is suspended for this fixture following a UEFA disciplinary ruling, forcing a change in the defensive setup. There is also an enforced change in goal, as experienced goalkeeper Lukasz Skorupski picked up a hamstring injury in the recent match against Sassuolo. His absence means Federico Ravaglia is likely to step in between the posts.
While Ravaglia has primarily featured in cup competitions, he now faces the challenge of performing in a high-pressure European knockout match. In attack, Federico Bernardeschi is expected to retain his place after an impressive display in the first leg, where he consistently troubled the opposition with his dribbling and creativity.
He is likely to start despite strong competition from Riccardo Orsolini, Nicolo Cambiaghi, Jonathan Rowe, and Benjamin Dominguez, all of whom remain viable options in the attacking third. Up front, Bologna have flexibility, with either Thijs Dallinga or Santiago Castro expected to lead the line depending on the tactical approach.
Bologna are expected to line up in a 4-3-3 formation for this encounter. Federico Ravaglia is likely to start in goal. The defensive line should consist of Nadir Zortea at right-back, with Jhon Lucumi and Martin Vitik forming the central defensive partnership, while Charalampos Lykogiannis operates at left-back in place of the suspended Juan Miranda.
As for the midfield unit, Lewis Ferguson is expected to slot in alongside Remo Freuler and Tommaso Pobega, creating a balanced trio capable of both controlling possession and contributing defensively.
In the attacking third, Federico Bernardeschi is likely to start on the right wing, Santiago Castro could lead the line as the central striker, and Jonathan Rowe is expected to operate from the left flank, forming a dynamic front three aimed at stretching Roma’s defence.
Probable Lineup (4-2-3-1): Ravaglia; Zortea, Lucumi, Vitik, Lykogiannis; Ferguson, Freuler, Pobega, Bernardeschi, Castro, Rowe
With Roma short on attacking options due to injuries, Lorenzo Pellegrini becomes the central figure in this decisive second leg. The Italian midfielder has already shown his importance in this tie, scoring in the first leg to bring Roma back into the contest, and his ability to influence games in key moments will be vital once again.
Pellegrini operates as the creative heartbeat of the side, linking midfield with attack while also carrying a goal threat from late runs into the box. His vision, set-piece quality, and composure under pressure make him one of Roma’s most reliable performers, especially in high-stakes European fixtures.
In a game where margins are expected to be tight, Pellegrini’s leadership and technical quality could prove decisive. Whether through a moment of creativity, a well-timed run, or a contribution from a dead-ball situation, he is the player most likely to unlock Bologna’s defence and guide Roma into the quarter-finals.
With the tie finely balanced after the first leg, this second encounter is likely to be decided by small margins. Roma will lean on their home advantage at Stadio Olimpico, where the atmosphere and familiarity could give them an edge in controlling the tempo of the game.
However, Bologna’s resilience and unbeaten European run suggest they will not be easily overawed. Their ability to stay compact and frustrate opponents could make this a tense and tactical contest, especially in the early stages. Much may depend on which side takes their chances more efficiently in front of goal.
Roma’s experience in knockout European ties and their ability to deliver in big moments may ultimately prove decisive, but it is unlikely to be straightforward. The Hard Tackle predicts a 2-1 victory for Gian Piero Gasperini and his charges.
