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Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid: Preview and Prediction

Real Madrid and Atletico Madrid will both look to extend their winning runs when they face off in Sunday’s derby.

Real Madrid will look to make it three league wins in a row and stay within touching distance of leaders Barcelona, while Atletico Madrid will be eyeing a fifth straight win in La Liga. Diego Simeone’s men might not longer be a part of the title race, but they can certainly spoil the party for their city rivals.

The home team are second on the table with 66 points in their 28 league outings. While they did regain the top spot a few weeks back, consecutive defeats handed over the reins to Barcelona. Now the Merengues are four points behind the Catalan club heading into the final ten La Liga games.

Los Blancos have won their last two league matches, and they are heading into this fixture on the back of a 2-1 away win over Manchester City in the UEFA Champions League. Alvaro Arbeloa’s team are in fine form, and they will be confident about getting the job done in this all-important fixture.

Meanwhile, the visitors are fourth on the table with 57 points in their 28 outings. The Colchoneros are only a point behind Villarreal, and they do have a game in hand. Since Barcelona are 13 points clear at the top, Atletico do not really have any chance of pushing for the title.

Since they have a 13-point lead over fifth-placed Real Betis, a Champions League spot also looks almost guaranteed. While their focus will be on cup competitions, this is not just another league outing. It is a derby, so expect Simeone’s men to go all out for the three points. The Hard Tackle takes a closer look at both teams and tries to predict the tactics they could deploy.

Team News & Tactics

Real Madrid

Alvaro Arbeloa has received a massive boost ahead of the Madrid derby as Kylian Mbappe is fit to start, while Ferland Mendy, David Alaba, Raul Asencio and Jude Bellingham could all be back on the bench.

However, Real Madrid without the services of Eder Militao (hamstring), Dani Ceballos (calf), Rodrygo (knee) and Thibaut Courtois (thigh) for the league game against Atletico Madrid this weekend.

Los Blancos will line up in a 4-3-1-2 formation, where Andriy Lunin will feature in goal. Trent Alexander-Arnold and Alvaro Carreras will feature as the full-backs, while Antonio Rudiger should partner Dean Huijsen in the heart of the defence.

As for the midfield unit, Aurelien Tchouameni will take up the holding role in the centre of the park, while Federico Valverde and Eduardo Camavinga will be in his support. The trio will look to ensure they dominate the ball.

Arda Guler will take up the number ten role, while Vinicius Junior and Kylian Mbappe will lead the line for Real Madrid against Atletico Madrid at the Santiago Bernabeu on Sunday night.

Probable Lineup (4-3-1-2): Lunin; Alexander-Arnold, Rudiger, Huijsen, Carreras; Camavinga, Tchouameni, Valverde; Guler; Mbappe, Vinicius Junior

Atletico Madrid

The visitors remain without the services of Pablo Barrios (thigh) and Rodrigo Mendoza (muscle). Meanwhile, Jan Oblak is also a doubt because of a hip issue, which means Juan Musso could continue in goal.

Atletico Madrid will lineup in a 4-4-2 formation, where Juan Musso will be in goal. Nahuel Molina and David Ruggeri will be the full-backs, while Marc Pubill will pair up with David Hancko in the heart of the defence.

As for the midfield unit, Marcos Llorente and Johnny Cardoso will feature as the two central midfielders, while Giuliano Simeone and Ademola Lookman will provide the width from midfield.

In the final third, Alexander Sorloth could replace Antoine Griezmann for the derby. The Norwegian striker will pair up with in-form Argentine World Cup winner, Julian Alvarez in the strike partnership.

Probable Lineup (4-4-2): Musso; Molina, Pubill, Hancko, Ruggeri; Simeone, Llorente, Cardoso, Lookman; Sorloth, Alvarez

Key Stats

  • Real Madrid have not beaten Atletico Madrid at the Bernabeu since December 2021.
  • Four out of the last six Madrid derbies have ended in a draw.
  • While Atletico Madrid won the reverse fixture (5-2), Los Blancos avenged that defeat in the Spanish Super Cup semi-final (2-1).
  • The team in white have won 12 out of their 14 home games in La Liga.
  • Atletico Madrid have won their last four league outings, while Real Madrid have won their last four in all competitions.

Player to Watch

Kylian Mbappe

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After missing the last few league outings, Mbappe is back fit and ready to start in the Madrid derby. All eyes will certainly be on the 27-year-old, who has 38 goals and six assists in his 34 outings this season. He has 23 goals in as many league outings.

Given the kind of form Mbappe was in prior to the knee injury, Alvaro Arbeloa will be hoping the French forward manages to hit top gear once again. He will certainly be key to their chances of taking down Simeone’s men, who will have every desire to end Real Madrid’s title dreams.

Prediction

Real Madrid 3-2 Atletico Madrid

Real Madrid will head into the derby with momentum on their side and a clear objective of keeping pace with Barcelona in the title race. With key players returning and their attack boasting immense firepower, Los Blancos will look to control proceedings and make the most of their strong home record at the Santiago Bernabeu.

Atletico Madrid, however, are unlikely to make things straightforward. Diego Simeone’s men have been in excellent form and will approach this clash with intensity and discipline, looking to disrupt Real Madrid’s rhythm and strike on the counter.

Given the recent history between the two sides, this is expected to be a closely contested affair, but Real Madrid might just have enough quality in the final third to edge it. The Hard Tackle predicts a 3-2 win for the home team.

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