Atalanta’s New Balance Stadium sets the stage for a ‘make or break’ 2026 FIFA World Cup playoff semi-final tie between Italy and Northern Ireland. The stakes are at an all-time high for the Azzurri, as they bid to return to the most prestigious international competition for the first time since 2014.
Italy’s last World Cup appearance dates back to the ‘Brazil edition’ over a decade ago. They have since missed out on back-to-back tournaments, and another failed attempt to secure qualification would be a disaster for the four-time world champions. Despite winning six of their eight qualifying fixtures in the current cycle, Gennaro Gattuso’s side must navigate another dreaded playoff path.
Worryingly for the home fans, Italy failed to qualify for the 2018 and 2022 World Cups, having bowed out in the playoffs on both occasions. After losing to Sweden in 2017, the Azzurri fell to a shocking defeat to North Macedonia in the last qualifying campaign. With that in mind, they would be naive to underestimate Northern Ireland.
Despite their underdog status, the Green & White Army will be heavily motivated to defy the odds in Bergamo, as they aim to return to the World Cup for the first time since 1986. The visitors can take encouragement from the fact that Mexico, a co-host of the upcoming tournament, also staged the last World Cup they reached four decades ago.
Italy
Despite their decent 75% win ratio in qualifying Group I, Italy finished runners-up to Norway, who enjoyed a flawless campaign. Indeed, the Azzurri lost both matches against the Scandinavian giants by a three-goal margin, including a dreadful 4-1 defeat on home soil last time out.
That remains the only blamish on Gattuso’s otherwise faultless record in charge of Italy (W5) and should serve as a warning for the Azzurri not to take anything for granted. On a more promising note, the Italians scored at least three goals in four of their five victories under the former Milan midfielder.
Another emphatic performance could be in store here, given that Italy are unbeaten in their last eight meetings with Northern Ireland (W6, D2), registering an eye-catching seven clean sheets in that sequence. Moreover, they emerged 2-0 winners when the two sides last met on Italian soil as part of their 2022 World Cup qualifying.
Northern Ireland
Michael O’Neill’s side must find a way to contend with Italy’s remarkably fast home starts. Indeed, the Azzurri won the first half in four of their last five home matches, highlighting their ability to put opponents on the back foot from the outset. It’s also worth noting that the visitors lost the second half in five of their last six away games.
Though that paints a bleak picture for Northern Ireland, they should take this trip in high spirits after winning their UEFA Nations League group. Against this backdrop, they have lost two of their last three internationals without scoring, which seems ominous, considering they have never scored against Italy on the road.
As if that’s not concerning enough, the Green & White army have notoriously struggled on their road trips, picking up just one win across their last ten fixtures in foreign lands (D2, L7). To further highlight the depth of their travel sickness, their only win in that dreadful sequence came against continental minnows Luxembourg.
Gattuso has received a double injury boost ahead of this pivotal clash. Indeed, Alessandro Bastoni and Riccardo Calafiori have shrugged off their fitness issues and will be in contention tonight. Bologna’s Nicolo Cambiaghi has replaced the injured Federico Chiesa, but Inter starlet Francesco Pio Esposito is reportedly set to start in attack at the expense of Mateo Retegui.
On the other hand, Northern Ireland boss O’Neill welcomes George Saville back from suspension, with the Luton Town midfielder expected to return to the starting XI. Furthermore, Shea Charles and Ali McCann have both recovered from their injury setbacks and will stake a claim for a place in the starting eleven.
Italy (3-5-2): Donnarumma; Calafiori, Mancini, Bastoni; Cambiaso, Tonali, Locatelli, Barella, Dimarco; Kean, Esposito.
Northern Ireland (5-3-2): P. Charles; Hume, McConville, Brown, McNair, Devenny; Saville, S. Charles, McCann; Price, Reid.
The gulf in class the two sides should ultimately prove decisive, with Italy expected to justify their favorites tag and book their place in the playoff final with a comfortable victory.
Prediction: Italy to Win
