What we are seeing from Manchester City may not be a resurgence but a late tactical recalibration from Pep Guardiola, backed by a squad that still carries enough quality to punish anyone on a bad day, but also enough fragility to collapse under pressure.
The last two performances, particularly the EFL Cup final win over Arsenal and the 4-0 demolition of Liverpool in the FA Cup quarter-final, are certainly not a false dawn. They are a controlled flare-up, pointing to a team that is re-focusing rather than fully rediscovering its old self.
For much of the 2025/26 Premier League season, Manchester City have occupied the odd space of being both dangerous and disjointed. Pep Guardiola’s men remain top-tier in structure and individual quality, but they have lacked the relentless rhythm of previous Guardiola-era title-winning campaigns.
The departure of Kevin De Bruyne, the end-of-guardian era at the back through Ederson Moraes and Kyle Walker, and the symbolic shift to Bernardo Silva as captain have all contributed to a sense that this is not quite the same machine.
Arsenal’s surge, in particular, has made Manchester City look like secondary protagonists in their own era: dominant enough on paper, but visibly vulnerable when pushed into a high-pressure, high-intensity contest. The Champions League exit and earlier league stutters suggested that, for the first time in a decade, Guardiola’s side could be genuinely challenged rather than just surpassed by tiny margins.
In pure talent, Manchester City still rival the best in England and Europe. Erling Haaland remains a devastating finisher, Rodri the metronome, and Rodri’s subordinates (Mateo Kovacic, Nico Gonzalez) provide enough technical security to keep the engine ticking. The emergence of Nico O’Reilly as a hybrid full-back-midfielder and Rayan Cherki as a creative “wild card” on the right flank gives Guardiola several higher-ceiling options off the bench or even in the starting XI.
Yet there are clear weak spots: a more exposed backline than in previous seasons, a lack of a true De Bruyne-style game-manager in the classic no.10 role, and a sense that some players, especially younger ones, are still learning how to be decisive in 90-minute knockout intensity rather than just 20-minute flashes.
That means Manchester City can look utterly dominant when they dictate tempo, as in the 4-0 win over Liverpool, but shaky when forced into a reactive, scramble-game, as in some recent tight league fixtures.
The recent analytical breakdowns and match clips reveal exactly what has changed in Pep Guardiola’s setup over the last fortnight. Manchester City have returned to classic overload-to-isolate principles, especially on the right flank. Pep Guardiola has routinely used Nico O’Reilly as an inverted left-back, allowing Matheus Nunes to tuck into a back-three base while City flood the left to force opponents to shift.
Once the opposition shifts, City switch to a 5v4 overload on the right flank, where Rayan Cherki and Antoine Semenyo rotate to isolate defenders. This creates 1v1 situations for City’s dribblers, stretches the backline, and opens lanes for underlaps and crosses.
Guardiola has given Cherki more freedom and central responsibility, plugging him into wider right-side rotations. In the EFL Cup final and subsequent games, Cherki has been deployed as a semi-winger, semi-inverted playmaker on the right, with Semenyo drifting wide and O’Reilly dropping into the half-spaces. This trio has effectively become City’s primary attacking axis, with Cherki both dropping deep to help Rodri and dashing up to create 2v1s against full-backs.
They have also adopted a more structured, patient approach to pressing and a “do-nothing” frustration strategy. In the EFL Cup final, City refused to press Arsenal’s goalkeeper when he held the ball for 30+ seconds, simply maintaining shape and closing lanes. This forced Arsenal into long, uncontrolled passes, which City’s front two, of Erling Haaland and Rayan Cherki, and wingers blocked to trigger high-press recoveries.
Guardiola has shifted from endless positional rotations to concentrated central overloads, with 3-4 players clustered around the centre circle to drag centre-backs and exploit space in behind. These changes are not a complete overhaul of Guardiola’s philosophy.
They are a tightening of his defaults, stripping away experimental wide-rotation chaos for clearer, win-oriented patterns: overload one side, isolate a dribbler, and rely on elite players like Cherki, O’Reilly, and Haaland to execute decisive moments.
The 2-0 EFL Cup final win over Arsenal and the 4-0 FA Cup romp against Liverpool paint a nuanced picture. Against Arsenal, Manchester City were not more dominant in territory. They were more intelligent in pressing, more disciplined in structure, and more ruthless in the final third.
Arsenal’s build-up was snuffed out by the front two and wingers sitting in front of the double pivot, with City’s right-side combinations (fuelled by Nico O’Reilly’s runs and Rayan Cherki’s delivery) producing two well-worked goals.
Against Liverpool, City flipped the narrative with a full 90-minute masterclass, dominating at both ends against one of England’s most dangerous counter-pressing sides. On the surface, these results scream “City are back.” But in context, they expose an Achilles’ heel: reproducibility in the grinding Premier League race. The Premier League is 38 plates of porridge (flat as it is fiery), and City can still drift into 1-1 or 2-1 draws against mid-table sides with compact blocks.
The axis of Cherki-O’Reilly-Semenyo is now one of the most flexible and dangerous combinations in the country. Pep Guardiola has reduced the “noise” of constant rotation, returning to overload-to-isolate patterns that his best teams have always used. The win-mentality culture and big-game DNA remain intact. Manchester City still lift trophies in high-pressure games.
Yet their defence is more exposed, the squad more reliant on key individuals than a uniform world-class lineup. Their league performance curve is uneven. City can blow Liverpool away but drop points against deep-sitting teams. Arsenal may still hold the psychological edge as the more consistent side throughout the campaign.
This is not a late-season miracle or temporary blip. It is a tactical and mental recalibration from Pep Guardiola that has unlocked a better version of an already-good but inconsistent team. City are not back to the untouchable 2022/23 caricature, but they are back enough to be serious contenders in every competition, especially when the stakes test IQ and nerve. These performances are not a false dawn either. They are the first clear light of a new, more restrained but still elite City era.
