Turkey and Paraguay will both look to recover from opening-day defeats when they meet in a crucial Group D fixture in San Francisco on Friday.
Both sides began their 2026 FIFA World Cup campaigns in disappointing fashion, leaving them already under pressure heading into matchday two. Turkey were beaten 2-0 by Australia despite dominating possession and registering 30 shots, while Paraguay suffered a heavy 4-1 defeat to co-hosts the United States after a disastrous first-half performance.
With the USA and Australia sitting ahead of them in the group, this is already close to a must-not-lose fixture for both teams. Defeat would leave either side facing a very difficult route to the knockout rounds, while victory would instantly revive their campaign.
Turkey arrived at the tournament with genuine optimism. After reaching the quarter-finals of Euro 2024 and entering the World Cup in strong form, Vincenzo Montella’s side were widely viewed as potential dark horses in Group D. Their opening match against Australia, however, raised serious concerns.
The Crescent-Stars controlled large spells of possession and produced 30 shots, but they failed to score in a 2-0 defeat. That lack of cutting edge was costly, especially against a disciplined Australian side that made the most of its chances. For Turkey, the result was frustrating not only because of the defeat itself, but because the performance showed a worrying gap between control and efficiency.
Turkey’s recent record at major tournaments also remains a concern. Despite often arriving with talented squads and high expectations, they have now lost nine of their last 13 matches at major competitions. That pattern has created doubts over whether this team can consistently deliver when the stakes are highest.
Paraguay, meanwhile, endured an even more damaging opening result. Gustavo Alfaro’s side were expected to be compact, stubborn and difficult to break down, but they were 3-0 behind at half-time against the USA in Los Angeles. That first-half collapse left them with too much to do.
The defeat also continued a poor trend in World Cup openers. Paraguay have now won only one of their nine opening matches at the tournament, meaning they once again find themselves needing to respond quickly in the group stage.
Before losing to the USA, Paraguay had built a reputation for defensive resilience. They had won three of their previous four matches and had impressed during CONMEBOL qualifying, where Alfaro guided them to surprise victories over Brazil and Argentina. That qualification campaign ended a 14-year wait to return to the World Cup and gave La Albirroja renewed belief.
Now, though, they must rediscover the defensive structure that got them here. Against Turkey, Paraguay are unlikely to dominate the ball, but they can make the match uncomfortable if they stay compact, compete physically and attack efficiently on the break. The Hard Tackle takes a look at how both sides could line up and what tactics they might employ on the day.
Turkey still have a fitness concern over Kenan Yildiz ahead of their crucial Group D meeting with Paraguay. The Juventus starstruggled for fitness towards the end of last season and was not ready to start against Australia because of a calf problem. He did feature in the second half of that match, but Vincenzo Montella may again restrict him to a substitute role on Friday rather than risk him from the beginning. However, there are no suspension concerns for Turkey heading into this fixture.
Turkey are expected to line up in a 4-2-3-1 formation, with Ugurcan Cakir starting in goal. Zeki Celik should operate at right-back, where his defensive discipline will be important against Paraguay’s wide transitions. Merih Demiral is likely to start as one of the centre-backs, bringing aerial strength and aggression. Abdulkerim Bardakci should partner him in central defence, offering physicality and composure on the ball. Ferdi Kadioglu should feature at left-back, where his forward runs and crossing ability can give Turkey an important attacking outlet.
In midfield, Hakan Calhanoglu is expected to start as part of the double pivot. His passing range, leadership and set-piece quality will be central to Turkey’s control of the match. Ismail Yuksek should partner him, providing defensive protection and energy in central areas.
Up forward, Arda Guler is likely to start on the right wing, where he can drift inside onto his stronger foot and look to create chances. Orkun Kokcu should operate as the central attacking midfielder, linking midfield with the striker and looking for pockets of space between Paraguay’s lines. Baris Alper Yilmaz is expected to start from the left side, giving Turkey a powerful and direct outlet. Kerem Akturkoglu should lead the line as the central striker.
Probable Lineup (4-2-3-1): Cakir; Celik, Demiral, Bardakci, Kadioglu; Calhanoglu, Yuksek; Guler, Kokcu, Yilmaz; Akturkoglu
Paraguay have two fitness concerns ahead of their crucial Group D meeting with Turkey. Gustavo Caballero missed the opening defeat to the USA because of a muscular issue, while Ramon Sosa is also doubtful due to an ankle problem. Gustavo Alfaro will hope both players can recover quickly, but neither appears certain to feature on Friday. There are no suspension concerns for Paraguay heading into this match.
La Albirroja are expected to line up in a 4-2-3-1 formation, with Orlando Gill starting in goal. Juan Jose Caceres should operate at right-back, where his defensive discipline will be important against Turkey’s wide threat. Gustavo Gomez is likely to start as one of the centre-backs, with Omar Alderete partnering him in central defence. Alexandro Maidana could feature at left-back, giving Paraguay a fresh option after their difficult opener.
In midfield, Damian Bobadilla is expected to start as part of the double pivot. His physical presence and ball-winning ability will be important in helping Paraguay disrupt Turkey’s rhythm. Andres Cubas should partner him, offering aggression and protection in front of the back four.
Further up the field, Diego Gomez is likely to start on the right side of the attacking midfield line, where he can drift inside and support transitions. Julio Enciso should operate centrally as the number 10, giving Paraguay creativity, ball-carrying ability and a link between midfield and attack. Miguel Almiron is expected to start from the left, where his pace and direct running can give La Albirroja an outlet on the counter-attack. Antonio Sanabria should lead the attack as the lone striker.
Probable Lineup (4-2-3-1): Gill; Caceres, G Gomez, Alderete, Maidana; Bobadilla, Cubas; D Gomez, Enciso, Almiron; Sanabria
Turkey produced 30 shots without scoring in their first Group D match, so their biggest challenge is not chance creation but final-third efficiency. Guler can help solve that problem with his close control, vision and ability to find passes in crowded areas. Against a Paraguay side likely to defend compactly after conceding four against the USA, his movement between the lines could be crucial.
Operating from the right side of Turkey’s 4-2-3-1 system, Guler should have freedom to drift inside and combine with Orkun Kokcu, Hakan Calhanoglu and Kerem Akturkoglu. His left-footed delivery from open play and set-piece situations could also give Turkey an important route to goal.
With Kenan Yildiz still not fully fit, Turkey may need Guler to carry even more responsibility in attack. If he can turn possession into clear chances, Vincenzo Montella’s side should have a strong chance of keeping their World Cup campaign alive.
Turkey were wasteful against Australia, but their chance creation suggests they still carry enough attacking threat to hurt opponents. Paraguay should be more organised than they were against the USA, but their defensive collapse in the opener is difficult to ignore. This may be tight and tense for long spells, but Turkey’s technical quality and urgency could help them edge a vital win.
