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Marseille vs Atalanta: Preview and Prediction

Olympique Marseille will welcome Atalanta BC to Stade Velodrome for a crucial UEFA Champions League clash on Wednesday night.

Separated by just one point in the UEFA Champions League standings, Olympique Marseille and Atalanta BC are both hunting for a second victory when they meet at the Stade Vélodrome on Wednesday night. The matchup promises intensity, with both sides needing points to keep their qualification hopes alive.

For Marseille, the Champions League has been a tale of two extremes this season, brilliance at home and fragility away. The French giants began their campaign with a narrow 2-1 defeat to Real Madrid in Spain before delivering an emphatic win over Ajax in front of their home fans. However, their most recent outing, a 2-1 loss to Sporting CP, exposed their recurring defensive lapses and lack of discipline, as Emerson Palmieri’s red card before half-time shifted the momentum against them.

That setback extended a troubling pattern for OM: they have lost 12 of their last 13 Champions League away matches. Yet at home, they are a different force, unbeaten in their last eight UEFA home fixtures, with just two defeats in their last 20 across European competitions. The Velodrome’s intimidating atmosphere and Marseille’s attacking fluency under Roberto De Zerbi make them a formidable challenge for any visitor.

Domestically, Marseille’s form has been mixed but effective enough to keep them within touching distance of PSG in Ligue 1. A 1-0 win over Auxerre last weekend, despite being reduced to 10 men following Ulisses Garcia’s dismissal, helped steady the ship after a three-game winless spell. The victory came courtesy of Angel Gomes, who has been one of the side’s most consistent performers.

For Atalanta, the story is one of transition. After winning the 2024 Europa League, the Italian club has struggled to recapture the same rhythm under new manager Ivan Juric, following the departure of long-serving coach Gian Piero Gasperini. La Dea suffered their first Serie A defeat of the season last weekend, losing 1-0 to Udinese without registering a single shot on target, a statistic emblematic of their offensive struggles.

In Europe, Atalanta’s inconsistency continues. After being thrashed 4-0 by PSG, they responded with a 1-0 victory over Club Brugge and a goalless stalemate against Slavia Praha, a game that remarkably featured 38 shots but no goals, a Champions League record. Despite their lack of cutting edge, the Italian side remains resilient, losing only two of their last 17 European fixtures and maintaining one of the best defensive records in the competition over the past two seasons, behind only Inter Milan and Arsenal.

As both sides look to balance creative expression with defensive stability, this match may well hinge on moments of individual brilliance. Marseille’s home strength and Atalanta’s European grit set the stage for a fascinating, tactical contest under the lights in Provence. The Hard Tackle takes a look at how both sides could line up and what tactics they might employ on the day.

Team News & Tactics

Marseille

Marseille will once again have to make do without several key players for their Champions League clash against Atalanta BC. Brazilian full-back Emerson Palmieri is suspended after his red card in the defeat to Sporting CP, adding to Roberto De Zerbi’s selection headaches. Midfielders Geoffrey Kondogbia, Hamed Traore, and forward Amine Gouiri are all unavailable due to injuries, while centre-back Leonardo Balerdi and winger Timothy Weah remain doubtful as they continue to recover from minor knocks.

Despite these absences, De Zerbi is expected to rely on the depth of his squad and may return to his preferred 4-2-3-1 setup after experimenting with changes at the weekend. The Italian manager has been known for his fluid tactical systems, but given the importance of this fixture, stability will likely take precedence.

In goal, Geronimo Rulli should retain his place behind a defensive line comprising Michael Amir Murillo at right-back, Benjamin Pavard and Nayef Aguerd as the central defenders, and Ulisses Garcia filling in at left-back due to Emerson’s suspension.

In midfield, the double pivot of Arthur Vermeeren and Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg will be tasked with controlling possession and providing defensive cover. Ahead of them, Mason Greenwood, Angel Gomes, and Igor Paixao will operate as the attacking trio, with the Brazilian winger returning to the lineup after being rested.

Leading the line, veteran striker Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang will spearhead Marseille’s attack. The Gabonese forward’s experience and link-up play with Paixao have been crucial to OM’s European performances so far, and De Zerbi will once again look to him to provide the finishing touch in front of goal.

Probable Lineup (4-2-3-1): Rulli; Murillo, Pavard, Aguerd, Garcia; Vermeeren, Hojbjerg; Greenwood, Gomes, Paixao; Aubameyang

Atalanta BC

Atalanta BC head coach Ivan Juric will be pleased to have most of his key players back in contention for the trip to Marseille. The Bergamo outfit’s lengthy injury list is finally easing, as both club captain Marten de Roon and forward Daniel Maldini have returned to full training and are expected to feature in the matchday squad. Their returns come as a significant boost, adding both leadership and creativity to the side.

However, there are still a couple of absentees for the Italian visitors. Promising centre-back Giorgio Scalvini remains sidelined as he continues his recovery from a muscle injury, while Sead Kolasinac is a doubt due to a minor fitness concern and may not be risked for this European fixture. There are no suspensions within the squad, allowing Juric flexibility in selection and tactics.

In terms of formation, Atalanta are expected to line up in their familiar 3-4-2-1 structure, a system that provides defensive solidity while allowing the wing-backs to push high up the pitch. In goal, Marco Carnesecchi will continue as the first-choice goalkeeper, shielded by a back three consisting of Odilon Kossounou, Isak Hien, and Berat Djimsiti.

The midfield four should feature Raoul Bellanova on the right flank and Davide Zappacosta on the left, both responsible for stretching the play and providing width. In central midfield, returning captain Marten de Roon will partner Ederson, with the duo tasked to disrupt Marseille’s rhythm and link transitions from defence to attack.

Further forward, Charles De Ketelaere and Kamaldeen Sulemana are likely to operate as the two attacking midfielders behind the striker, providing creativity and off-the-ball movement. Up front, Ademola Lookman is expected to lead the line, with the Nigerian international’s pace and finishing ability offering Juric’s side their best attacking outlet, especially given the recent struggles of Gianluca Scamacca and Nikola Krstovic in front of goal.

Probable Lineup (3-4-2-1): Carnesecchi; Kossounou, Hien, Djimsiti; Bellanova, De Roon, Ederson, Zappacosta; De Ketelaere, Sulemana; Lookman

Key Stats

  • Marseille are unbeaten in their last eight UEFA home games, winning six of those and drawing two. They have also lost just two of their last 20 European fixtures at the Stade Velodrome, making the French venue one of the most challenging away grounds for visiting teams.

  • Atalanta BC have lost only two of their last 17 European group or league-phase matches, underlining their ability to secure points on the continental stage regardless of opposition or venue.

  • Despite both sides’ attacking potential, recent head-to-heads have been cagey, in the last four meetings between Marseille and Atalanta in European competitions, only seven total goals have been scored, averaging under two goals per match.

  • Marseille have conceded six goals in their last three Champions League fixtures, including blowing a lead against Sporting CP. They have also received two red cards in those three games, pointing to lapses in discipline under pressure.

  • Ivan Juric’s side have failed to score in two of their three Champions League matches this season and recorded zero shots on target in their recent Serie A defeat to Udinese, a worrying sign as they prepare to face a Marseille team that thrives at home.

Player to Watch

Mason Greenwood

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Few players in European football combine flair, unpredictability, and technical precision quite like Mason Greenwood, and he could be the defining factor in this clash at the Stade Velodrome. The English forward has steadily grown into a key creative outlet for Marseille, adapting seamlessly under Roberto De Zerbi’s fluid attacking system.

Operating primarily on the right flank but often drifting into central positions, Greenwood’s ability to cut inside onto his favoured left foot makes him a constant threat. His dribbling and close control in tight spaces often open up compact defensive blocks, and his sharp passing in the final third has helped Marseille transition quickly from defence to attack.

So far this Champions League campaign, Greenwood has been directly involved in several of Marseille’s best attacking sequences, his pace and movement drawing defenders out of position to create space for teammates like Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang and Igor Paixao.

Against an Atalanta side known for their man-oriented pressing, Greenwood’s knack for finding pockets between the lines and unleashing precise long-range efforts could prove decisive. If Marseille are to break through Atalanta’s disciplined defensive structure, Mason Greenwood’s creativity and finishing touch will almost certainly be central to their success.

Prediction

Marseille 2-1 Atalanta

This clash at the Stade Velodrome has all the makings of a tight, tactical encounter. Marseille boast a superb home record in Europe and will rely heavily on their creative players, Mason Greenwood, Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang, and Igor Paixao, to unlock Atalanta’s disciplined back line.

Meanwhile, Atalanta, though compact and hard to break down, have struggled to find consistency in front of goal. Ademola Lookman and Charles De Ketelaere will pose a threat on the break, but their recent lack of sharpness in the final third could prove costly against a Marseille side that thrives under pressure at home.

Given Marseille’s attacking quality and the intimidating atmosphere of the Velodrome, the hosts are slight favourites to edge this one, though Atalanta’s defensive structure means it is unlikely to be a high-scoring affair.

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