A place in next season’s Champions League is at stake for Roma as they face bottom-half Fiorentina in a must-win clash at Stadio Olimpico. Anything other than a win for the home side would likely spell disaster for their hopes of overtaking Juventus down the final stretch.
Roma’s hopes of securing their first top-four finish in Serie A since the 2017/18 season received a major boost yesterday. Already-relegated Hellas Verona held Luciano Spalletti’s side to a 1-1 draw in Turin, giving the Giallorossi the chance to blow a top-four race wide open.
Sitting four points adrift of Juventus, Roma cannot afford a slip-up here if they’re to close the gap, especially with a mouth-watering Derby della Capitale against Lazio waiting around the corner. Gian Piero Gasperini’s men should be in a good mood after beating Bologna 2-0 on the road last weekend to extend their unbeaten streak in Serie A to three games (W2, D1).
Fiorentina shared the spoils with Sassuolo in a dull 0-0 draw at home last time out. However, unbeaten in seven consecutive league outings (W3, D4), the visitors have already staved off relegation fears, as they boast a comfortable nine-point lead over 18th-placed Cremonese ahead of Monday night’s kick-off.
Therefore, a point in the capital would seal the deal for La Viola, who will be out to avenge a 2-1 defeat in October’s reverse fixture.
Roma
Gasperini’s first season in Rome has delivered mixed feelings, but securing a place in the Champions League for the first time in eight years would be a resounding success. Roma’s tally of 61 points at this stage of the season marks their best return since they last secured a top-four finish.
However, that may still not be enough to pip Juventus and Como to a coveted fourth place. Eager to hold up their end of the bargain, Roma can draw confidence from their stellar home run, as they’ve not lost a league clash at the Olimpico since November (W7, D3).
Furthermore, they’ve emerged victorious from 11 of their 13 home league matches against sides starting this round below them in the table (D1, L1), conceding just four goals. In addition to their impressive defensive exploits, Roma have often been quick out of the blocks.
Only new champions Inter (28) have opened the scoring in more Serie A games than the Giallorossi this season (21). Another fast start would bode well here, given that Roma won 18 of those matches (D2, L1).
Fiorentina
Despite enduring a disappointing season, Paolo Vanoli’s men seem to have found their footing recently, going unbeaten in ten of their last 11 Serie A outings (W5, D5). Although they cannot finish in the upper half of the table, Fiorentina will target a strong end to the campaign.
Upsetting the odds at the Olimpico is not beyond La Viola’s reach. They’ve avoided defeat in four of their last five away games across all competitions (W3, D1) despite keeping just one clean sheet in that sequence. Against this backdrop, Fiorentina’s recent visits to the capital have often gone wrong.
Vanoli’s charges have lost five of their seven away clashes against Roma since their last win here back in April 2018 (D2). In fact, they’ve picked up just three wins from 51 previous visits to the Olimpico (D16, L32), highlighting the magnitude of the task ahead.
However, after conceding just one first-half goal across their last seven league fixtures, Fiorentina will fancy their chances of frustrating Roma early on and turning this encounter into a tense affair.
Star midfielder Lorenzo Pellegrini has recently joined long-term absentees Artem Dovbyk and Evan Ferguson in the treatment room. Roma will also be without diminutive winger Bryan Zaragoza due to a knee problem, while Neil El Aynaoui must serve a suspension. On the bright side, Manu Kone has returned from injury and is likely to make his first Serie A start since mid-March.
Meanwhile, Fiorentina talisman Moise Kean remains on the sidelines with a shin problem. His deputy, Roberto Piccoli, is also out with a muscular issue, with Albert Gudmundsson expected to lead the line in their absence. Niccolo Fortini and Tariq Lamptey are unavailable for selection, but Robin Gosens and Fabiano Parisi have both resumed full training.
Roma (3-4-2-1): Svilar; Mancini, Ndicka, Hermoso; Celik, Cristante, Kone, Wesley; Soule, Dybala; Malen.
Fiorentina (4-3-3): De Gea; Dodo, Pongracic, Ranieri, Gosens; Ndour, Fagioli, Mandragora; Harrison, Gudmundsson, Solomon.
Failure is not an option for Roma if they’re to close the gap on the top four. However, Fiorentina are no idle threat. With both teams enjoying strong runs of form, this feels like a finely balanced contest that could ultimately produce another of the spoils.
Prediction: Draw
