Tunisia and Japan will meet at Estadio Monterrey in Guadalupe on Sunday in a Group F fixture carrying both competitive and historical significance at the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
The match will go into the record books as the 1,000th game in World Cup history, adding another layer of importance to a contest that already matters greatly for both teams. Tunisia are desperate to recover from a heavy opening defeat to Sweden, while Japan will be looking to build on their spirited 2-2 draw against Netherlands.
For Tunisia, this is about survival and a fresh start under Herve Renard. For Japan, it is an opportunity to strengthen their position in the race for the knockout rounds. Tunisia endured a disastrous start to their seventh World Cup appearance, suffering a 5-1 defeat to Sweden in their opening Group F fixture. The result left the Eagles of Carthage at the bottom of the section and immediately placed their tournament hopes under serious pressure.
The scale of the defeat also triggered a major coaching change. Sabri Lamouchi, who had only been appointed in January and took charge of five matches, was dismissed after the loss. Technical director Mondher Kebaier was initially expected to step in, but Tunisia have instead turned to Herve Renard in an attempt to revive their campaign.
Renard arrives with strong World Cup experience and a reputation for producing memorable results. The 57-year-old Frenchman is now managing at his third successive World Cup with a third different nation, having previously led Morocco in 2018 and Saudi Arabia in 2022.
His most famous World Cup result came in Qatar, when Saudi Arabia stunned eventual champions Argentina in the group stage. Tunisia will hope that Renard can make a similarly immediate impact here, although the circumstances are extremely difficult. He has little time to reshape the side, and confidence will have been damaged by the manner of the defeat to Sweden.
Japan, meanwhile, began their campaign with a dramatic 2-2 draw against Netherlands. Hajime Moriyasu’s side twice came from behind in a match that burst into life after half time, showing character, structure and attacking sharpness against one of Europe’s strongest teams.
Virgil van Dijk gave Netherlands the lead with a header, but Keito Nakamura responded with a low strike from the edge of the area. Crysencio Summerville then restored Oranje’s advantage, only for Daichi Kamada to rescue a point for Japan in the 89th minute with a clever headed finish from Koki Ogawa’s late effort.
Moriyasu will be encouraged by the way his players executed their plan, but he also admitted some disappointment at taking only a point. That reaction reflects Japan’s growing ambition. The Samurai Blue are no longer satisfied with simply competing; they believe they can beat high-level opponents and make another serious run into the knockout rounds.
Ranked 17th in the world by FIFA, Japan can significantly improve their chances of reaching the knockout stage for the third successive World Cup by beating Tunisia. With Sweden still to come in their final group fixture, this match may be their best opportunity to take control of their qualification hopes.
Japan also have a strong recent record in this fixture. They have won five of their previous six meetings with Tunisia, including a 2-0 friendly victory in Kobe in October 2023. That history, combined with Tunisia’s current instability, should give Moriyasu’s side confidence. The Hard Tackle takes a look at how both sides could line up and what tactics they might employ on the day.
Tunisia are expected to make tactical adjustments for their second Group F match against Japan, especially after the heavy 5-1 defeat to Sweden in their opening fixture. Sabri Lamouchi used a 3-5-2 system in that match, but new head coach Herve Renard may prefer to switch to a back four as he looks to bring more defensive balance and structure to the side. There are no fresh injury concerns reported for Tunisia ahead of this fixture, and there are no suspension issues for the Eagles of Carthage. The bigger change comes in the dugout, with Renard taking charge after Lamouchi’s dismissal. His immediate task will be to improve Tunisia’s organisation, restore confidence and make the team more competitive against a technically strong Japan side.
Tunisia are expected to line up in a 4-2-3-1 formation, with Mouhib Chamakh starting in goal. Yan Valery should operate at right-back, where he will need to deal with Japan’s wide movement while also supporting attacks when possible. Omar Rekik is likely to start as one of the centre-backs, with Montassar Talbi partnering him in central defence. Ali Abdi should feature at left-back, giving Tunisia energy on that side.
Ellyes Skhiri and Rani Khedira should sit in front of the defence as the two central midfielders. The former will be expected to screen the back line and help Tunisia regain control after the Sweden defeat, while the latter should provide work rate, defensive coverage and simple distribution. Ahead of them, Elias Achouri is likely to start on the right wing, Hannibal Mejbri should operate as the central attacking midfielder, and Ismael Gharbi is expected to begin on the left wing.
Firas Chaouat is expected to lead the line as the central striker. Hazem Mastouri and Elias Saad are also options, but Chaouat may get the nod because he has scored more international goals than any other attacker in the current Tunisia squad, with six.
Probable Lineup (4-2-3-1): Chamakh; Valery, Rekik, Talbi, Ali Abdi; Skhiri, Khedira; Achouri, Hannibal, Gharbi; Chaouat
Japan will be forced into at least one change for their Group F meeting with Tunisia, as Takefusa Kubo has been ruled out after sustaining a knee injury in the 2-2 draw with Netherlands. The Real Sociedad attacker was later pictured leaving the stadium in a wheelchair, making his absence a significant blow for Hajime Moriyasu’s side. There are no suspension concerns for Japan heading into this fixture. Moriyasu is otherwise expected to keep most of his team intact after a strong second-half response against Netherlands.
Japan are expected to line up in a 3-4-2-1 formation, with Zion Suzuki starting in goal. Shogo Taniguchi should operate as the right-sided centre-back, bringing experience in possession. Tsuyoshi Watanabe is likely to start in the middle of the back three, where his defensive positioning and aerial presence will be important. Hiroki Ito should feature as the left-sided centre-back, giving Japan the ability to progress the ball from deep.
In the wing-back roles, Yukinari Sugawara is expected to start on the right, offering width and crossing quality. Keito Nakamura should operate on the left side, where he can push forward and provide attacking support after scoring against Netherlands. In central midfield, Daichi Kamada is likely to play as one of the two deeper midfielders, helping Japan connect defence with attack through his passing and intelligence. Kaishu Sano should partner him, bringing energy and ball-winning ability to the table.
Up forward, Ritsu Doan is expected to operate in one of the two advanced attacking roles, giving Japan creativity and movement around the penalty area. Daizen Maeda should play alongside him as the second attacking midfielder or inside forward, using his pace, pressing and direct running to unsettle Tunisia’s defence. Ayase Ueda is expected to lead the line as the central striker.
Probable Lineup (3-4-2-1): Suzuki; Taniguchi, Watanabe, Ito; Sugawara, Kamada, Sano, Nakamura; Roan, Maeda; Ueda
Kamada scored Japan’s 89th-minute equaliser in that match, showing excellent timing and composure to arrive in the right area and rescue a valuable point for the Samurai Blue. That goal underlined his importance as one of Japan’s most intelligent attacking midfielders.
With Takefusa Kubo ruled out through a knee injury, Kamada’s responsibility becomes even greater. Japan will need his vision, movement and ability to connect midfield with attack against a Tunisia side expected to be more compact under Herve Renard.
Operating from central midfield in Japan’s 3-4-2-1 system, Kamada can help control possession while also making late runs into dangerous areas. If he finds space between Tunisia’s midfield and defence, Japan should have a strong chance of turning their technical superiority into a crucial Group F victory.
Tunisia may improve under Herve Renard, especially in terms of organisation and defensive structure, but Japan look the more settled and confident side. The Samurai Blue showed real quality against Netherlands and should have enough attacking variety to break down a Tunisia team still recovering from a heavy opening defeat. Renard’s arrival may make Tunisia more competitive, but Japan’s rhythm, technical quality and recent head-to-head record point towards a Samurai Blue victory.
