Published: 5 hours ago

Bayer Leverkusen vs Arsenal: Preview and Prediction

Bayer Leverkusen host Arsenal at BayArena for the first leg of their UEFA Champions League round of 16 clash, in a game billed as the ‘Invincibles Derby’.

The word ‘invincibles’ is associated with a team that went through an entire league season without losing a game, and there are only two or three in the 21st century, with Arsenal and Bayer Leverkusen in that small group. Hence, this upcoming Champions League round of 16 first leg between those two teams is now billed as the ‘Invincibles Derby’.

Kasper Hjulmand had to work hard to get this team into the round of 16 of the Champions League, and even steady the ship in a big way from the reign of predecessor Erik ten Hag. Having finished in 16th place in the league phase, Bayer Leverkusen had to go through a two-legged tie with Olympiacos to get to this level, with the second leg at the BayArena ending in a goalless draw, as the former Bundesliga holders secured a 2-0 win in the first leg.

As for their form, Hjulmand’s men are unbeaten in their last five games on home soil across all competitions, but they have only one win in five across all fronts, including the 3-3 draw with Freiburg away from home in the Bundesliga. However, the tie against Arsenal provides a stern test of character for the German giants, although they do not have a good recent record against the English outfit.

Arsenal secured another important victory at the weekend, this time in the FA Cup against lower-league opposition Mansfield Town. Once again, the focus was on their performances rather than results, although there were plenty of factors affecting Mikel Arteta’s side and preventing them from going all guns blazing, with the shabby state of the pitch being one of the primary reasons.

There were two injury issues along the way for the Gunners, but fans were hoping the withdrawals were precautionary at best. However, the win secured Arsenal a date with Southampton in the FA Cup quarter-finals, while they also went seven points clear at the top of the Premier League following a 1-0 win over Brighton & Hove Albion away from home last week.

In their Champions League campaign, there is plenty of chatter that Arsenal have got the ‘easy’ side of the draw. However, Arteta will certainly suggest every game is important and hard, as Bayer Leverkusen will hope they give a tough game on Wednesday, although Arsenal’s terrific record in the competition could continue and paint a different picture altogether.

Team News & Tactics

Bayer Leverkusen

Kasper Hjulmand would have ideally wanted to have a squad in tip-top shape, but the reality is that there are plenty of injury issues. As many as seven players are ruled out of the first leg for Leverkusen, including key striker Patrik Schick and defender Loic Bade. First-choice keeper Mark Flekken is also ruled out, meaning Janis Blaswich will continue to deputise for the former Brentford man.

Lucas Vazquez, Nathan Tella, Eliesse Ben Seghir, and Arthur are also out for the home side, meaning Hjulmand must make the right selections to field a strong enough squad. Christian Kofane is expected to lead the line for Bayer Leverkusen against Arsenal in the absence of Schick, with Martin Terrier and Ibrahim Maza playing behind the centre-forward.

Exequiel Palacios and Aleix Garcia are expected to hold the midfield together, with Ernest Poku and the in-form Alex Grimaldo stationed in the wing-back roles. With Bade absent, midfielder Robert Andrich is expected to slot into the back three alongside Jarrell Quansah and Edmond Tapsoba.

Probable Lineup (3-4-2-1): Blaswich; Quansah, Andrich, Tapsoba; Poku, Palacios, García, Grimaldo; Terrier, Maza; Kofane

Arsenal

Mikel Arteta is sweating on the fitness of key duo Leandro Trossard and Riccardo Calafiori following the injury issues they suffered against Mansfield Town at the weekend. Both are still doubts for the clash with Bayer Leverkusen, and a late decision could be made depending on how serious the problems are.

Beyond that, there are still doubts over Martin Odegaard’s participation as well as that of William Saliba. The latter has missed the last two games with a new ankle problem, but it is not thought to be a serious issue. Hence, Arteta might have to decide on his starting centre-back pairing, although it could be Cristhian Mosquera getting the nod to start alongside Gabriel Magalhaes.

Arteta rested many of his big guns at the weekend, which could see the likes of David Raya, Declan Rice, Martin Zubimendi, Eberechi Eze, Bukayo Saka, Viktor Gyokeres, and Jurrien Timber return to the lineup. Overall, the Gunners are expected to field their best available lineup for this away clash, including Piero Hincapie, who will face his former side.

Probable Lineup (4-2-3-1): Raya; Timber, Mosquera, Gabriel, Hincapie; Zubimendi, Rice; Saka, Eze, Martinelli; Gyokeres

Key Stats

  • Bayer Leverkusen are unbeaten in their last five home games across all competitions, conceding just once in that period.
  • Bayer Leverkusen have registered only one win in their last five games across all competitions.
  • Arsenal are unbeaten in UEFA the Champions League this season, winning all eight of their games.
  • Arsenal have won their last four games and are unbeaten in 11 across all competitions.
  • Coming into the round of 16 fixtures, Bayer Leverkusen have conceded more shots from high turnovers (26) than any other side in the UEFA Champions League this season. Overall, only Qarabag (118) have conceded more total high turnovers than the German side (109) in this edition. Meanwhile, Arsenal are the only team to have not trailed at any point in the UEFA Champions League this season (62% winning, 38% drawing of their total match time). The Gunners have the best xG difference when in a drawing game state of any team in this edition (+8 – 9.4 xG for, 1.4 xG against).

Player to Watch

Piero Hincapie

Embed from Getty Images

The Ecuadorian defender is getting ready to face his parent club, and Mikel Arteta is certain to start him in the backline. Hincapie has been in a terrific vein of form of late, showcasing his defensive solidity in a time of need for the Gunners.

Beyond the fact that a dramatic return awaits Hincapie at the BayArena, more importantly, it is his presence in the Arsenal backline that makes the team difficult to beat at the current moment. The 24-year-old has had his flaws along the way, but there are more positives to take than negatives, as he will be one of Arsenal’s most important performers on Wednesday.

Prediction

Bayer Leverkusen 1-2 Arsenal

Bayer Leverkusen have become an unpredictable side, given they could spring up a big surprise against one of the big hitters in any competition or fade away into irrelevancy. It remains to be seen which version of Kasper Hjulmand’s side shows up against Arsenal, but the odds are stacked against them.

Arsenal have been the best attacking and defensive units in the competition this term, and they are widely expected to take an advantage back to the Emirates for the return leg. However, there might be a case that Mikel Arteta adopts a cautious approach for this one, which could see them win, but perhaps not with a big scoreline.

Ï