Everton vs Chelsea at the Hill Dickinson Stadium on Saturday will feature two teams gunning for a place in the top four after solid starts to their campaigns.
Everton’s frustration was summed up by the draw with Hull City, while Chelsea responded to a damaging defeat before the international break by beating Bournemouth 5-1. That contrast captures the shape of this meeting at Goodison Park. David Moyes’s men have the steadier platform, but Chelsea arrive with the greater burst of attacking confidence.
Both are chasing European progress rather than fighting an immediate win-only battle. Yet, the hosts are trying to hold their spot while keeping the Champions League places within reach. Chelsea need points to stay in the same race and turn their latest surge into something more lasting.
For Everton, another draw would preserve an unbeaten start but would also feel like a missed opportunity after the result against Hull. The Toffees have won two and drawn four of their six Premier League matches thus far. So, the immediate value of this fixture is in converting that consistency into a statement win.
Their recent four-match output gives them 1.44 xG per game and 0.99 xGA, a combination that explains why the home side can pursue three points without having to turn the match into an open contest. They carry a settled identity under David Moyes, and their defensive record across all competitions has been strong. The question is whether the doubt over Vitaliy Mykolenko changes the left side enough to make Everton more cautious than planned.
Chelsea have a different problem. The win over Bournemouth lifted the mood and put them in position to chase consecutive league wins, but the preceding defeat by Brentford showed how quickly their attacking ambition can expose the defence.
A draw would keep them moving inside the European places, while a win would give their new project genuine momentum; another loss would leave the recent inconsistency unresolved. Xabi Alonso’s men have conceded in each of their past 22 Premier League matches, and they have won only one of their last nine league visits to Everton. The latest result offers encouragement, but their defensive control remains the part of the performance that Everton will test.
Vitaliy Mykolenko remains doubtful for Everton after carrying a muscular injury from international duty with Ukraine. Everton will line up in their familiar 4-2-3-1 formation vs Chelsea. Jordan Pickford will feature between the sticks behind Jarrad Branthwaite, Michael Keane, and James Tarkowski, with Ainsley Maitland-Niles on the right. That established core allows Everton to absorb uncertainty on the left without changing the whole structure.
James Garner and Harrison Armstrong should form the two-man screen, with Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall ahead of them. The latter is the most important selection in the home midfield; the former Chelsea playmaker has six starts, 15 key passes and five big chances created, giving him the link between the holders and the striker.
Jack Grealish is expected to start on the left and Brennan Johnson on the right, with Thierno Barry leading the line. Barry has scored three times and registered 22 shots, including eight on target. However, his current form has been less convincing than his role suggests. The Frenchman remains the fixed outlet Everton need.
Probable Everton Starting Lineup (4-2-3-1): Pickford; Maitland-Niles, Tarkowski, Keane, Branthwaite; Armstrong, Garner; Johnson, Dewsbury-Hall, Grealish; Barry
Probable Chelsea Starting Lineup (3-4-2-1): Martinez; Acheampong, Lacroix, Colwill; Neto, Henderson, Caicedo, Chavarria; Palmer, Rogers; Joao Pedro
Chelsea are without Reece James because of a hamstring injury, while Jamie Gittens is out with an ankle problem and Emmanuel Emegha misses the game with a hamstring injury. The absences remove flexibility, a wide attacking option, and a midfield alternative, but the 3-4-2-1 shape remains intact.
Emiliano Martinez should start behind Maxence Lacroix, Levi Colwill, and Josh Acheampong. Meanwhile, Moises Caicedo and Jordan Henderson are expected to operate in midfield, with Pep Chavarría and Pedro Neto providing the width as the wing-backs. Henderson announced his arrival with a brace and an assist against Bournemouth last weekend, while Neto brings five shots on target from nine attempts.
Morgan Rogers and Cole Palmer should play behind Joao Pedro. Rogers has four goals and 11 key passes, Palmer has three assists and 13 key passes, and Pedro leads the line as the one of the most in-form players in the Premier League with five goals and three assists. Chelsea’s attack therefore has clear connections, even if the defensive cover behind it is less dependable.
Everton’s 4-2-3-1 setup is designed to keep two midfielders behind Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall and give Thierno Barry a fixed target ahead of him. Chelsea’s 3-4-2-1 system keeps an extra centre-back behind two inside attackers, allowing Morgan Rogers and Cole Palmer to play close to Joao Pedro without abandoning central protection.
Both managers are prepared to pursue the win while still accepting a draw. So, neither side should need to force the match from the opening minute. The two profiles suggest Chelsea will have slightly more of the ball, but not enough to make possession the story.
Everton average 43.5 per match and Chelsea 47.5, against a league typical figure of 48 per cent. The Toffees’ more distinctive habit is their appetite for attempts, with 15.5 shots per match compared with Chelsea’s 12.5, the league’s typical figure on that measure. That points to a match in which David Moyes’s men may accept less of the ball but still create the more persistent stream of attempts, particularly if their central striker remains involved.
The key system question is whether Chelsea’s back three can keep its spare defender without allowing the spaces around the line to become useful for Everton’s inside attackers. If Barry pins the centre-backs, the hosts can connect through Dewsbury-Hall and make the extra defender uncomfortable.
If Chelsea hold their shape, the home side’s direct route through the striker becomes less reliable, and the visitors can use Palmer and Rogers to attack the spaces left around Everton’s centre-backs. The West London club’s recent 3-0 defeat to Brentford followed by the Bournemouth win also shows the volatility of this arrangement; it can generate force, but it can give opponents a route into the game. That makes Thierno Barry against Maxence Lacroix the leading duel.
Barry has to occupy the three-man line and give Everton a dependable reference point; Lacroix has to stop that reference becoming a problem that forces Chelsea to abandon their spare defender. The Everton striker’s three goals and 22 attempts show why Everton will keep looking for him, while his compatriot’s five starts make him the likely defender responsible for meeting that challenge.
If Barry wins the contest, Chelsea may have to push a defender out and expose the spaces around the line. If Lacroix comes through, Everton’s central route loses its outlet and the home side may shift towards the 4-1-4-1 alternative. Behind the duel sits the wider tactical cost. Chelsea cannot keep all the benefits of the back three if the central reference constantly fixes it in place.
Dewsbury-Hall against Moises Caicedo is the second key battle. Everton’s central connector, whose exploits have made him a popular differential pick in FPL for Gameweek 7, must receive beyond the midfield screen and still protect the space that makes the two-holder structure safe. Caicedo has to stop that connection early.
If Dewsbury-Hall gets through, Everton can feed Barry while keeping enough cover to protect a point; if Caicedo controls the link, the hosts may lose their progress through the middle and need the one-holder alternative to preserve its shape.
We predict an Everton win, albeit only with medium confidence. The hosts have the better recent chance platform, and their recent four-match aggregate is 1.44 xG and 0.99 xGA, while Chelsea’s is 0.87 xG and 1.69 xGA.
Those figures support the Toffees’ ability to create the clearer structure of the match, especially if Thierno Barry can keep the visitors’ back three occupied and Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall can connect the midfield to him. The strongest case against Everton is Chelsea’s finishing.
The Blues’ season return sits 6.148 goals above expected, whereas Everton are 0.357 below expected. So, the visitors can overturn the structural disadvantage if Joao Pedro, Morgan Rogers, and Cole Palmer convert the first openings.
A quick Chelsea goal would force Everton to attack a game they would prefer to control, and the home side’s lower share of possession could then become a problem rather than a deliberate choice. The likely result is a narrow Everton result, with 2-1 the leading scoreline band alongside 1-1 and 2-2. The match may still contain chances at both ends, but Everton’s defensive platform and the more stable central structure make them the better side to trust.
The important late adjustment is structural rather than cosmetic. If Chelsea’s three-man defence cannot contain Barry, there is a 4-2-3-1 alternative that would remove the spare central defender but give them a more familiar midfield balance.
Everton have the opposite safeguard. The 4-1-4-1 can preserve central numbers if Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall is being denied. Those switches give both managers a way to respond, but the home side’s option is better suited to protecting a narrow advantage once the central battle has gone their way.
